FanBoardHQ

Ball State

Ball State University · 2024 · Mid-American

FanBoardHQ CFP
#122
Efficiency
-18.6
126th FBS
Record
3-9
Conf. record
2-6
Conf. finish
T-9th
of 12
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Ball State went 3-9 and was ranked 122nd in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 87th-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 129th-ranked defense. They passed the ball on 57% of offensive plays with a 97th-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 43% of plays with an 119th-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-1
Q2
0-2
Q3
0-1
Q4
3-5

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 3.0 wins
Strength of Record
120th
-6.6 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
91st
full season
91st
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
109th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~7.0 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
2vs Missouri StateMVFCW 4234-4.2100%-4.3Q4
3@ Miami-FLACC#20L 062-37.50%-27.1Q1
4@ Central MichiganMid-American#116L 3437-4.70%-17.1Q4
5@ James MadisonSun Belt#54L 763-23.10%-51.2Q2
6vs Western MichiganMid-American#95L 4245-5.40%-19.5Q4
7@ Kent StateMid-American#134W 3735+13.0100%-29.6Q4
8@ VanderbiltSEC#41L 1424-28.90%-0.6Q2
9vs Northern IllinoisMid-American#65W 2523-13.9100%-2.7Q4
11vs Miami-OHMid-American#59L 2127-13.10%-11.4Q4
12@ BuffaloMid-American#64L 4851-14.40%-5.2Q4
13vs Bowling GreenMid-American#72L 1338-14.60%-27.9Q4
14@ OhioMid-American#46L 2142-21.00%-26.5Q3

12 played · 3-9. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Ball State, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-47.1-25.6-4.1-4-27-17-51-19-30-1-3-11-5-28-26Week 0Week 20
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 97th
SR 101stYPP 101stEPA 92nd
RushingEff 119th
SR 106thYPP 126thEPA 119th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 129th
SR 127thYPP 127thEPA 127th
Rush defenseEff 136th
SR 136thYPP 128thEPA 136th
Dropback rate 57%Tempo +2.5 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 81st on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 44%1st · Defense allowed: 43%1st2nd · Offense: 36%2nd · Defense allowed: 51%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 44%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 51%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 55.0Q1 · Allowed: 97.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 85.0Q2 · Allowed: 117.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 63.0Q3 · Allowed: 86.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 88.0Q4 · Allowed: 169.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledBall StateOffenseDefense
Ball State Offense vs Defense, 2024
Offensive EffRanked 87th
-3.0
Field position: -0.7Finishing drives: -2.3
Field position -0.7Finishing drives -2.3= -3.0
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 86th · Finishing 84th

Defensive EffRanked 129th
-13.0
Field position: -2.3Finishing drives: -10.7
Field position -2.3Finishing drives -10.7= -13.0
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 130th · Finishing 128th

2.04 points per drive on offense, 3.27 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 30.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(181)56% / 44%54%6.9
Q2(248)66% / 34%35%4.9
Q3(192)48% / 52%43%4.9
Q4(176)63% / 37%36%5.4
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(184)10.052%6.9
2nd(137)8.332%4.6
3rd(134)8.137%6.8
4th(14)7.421%4.4
All (469)41%6.1
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(162)10.036%4.4
2nd(112)7.840%4.5
3rd(41)3.863%5.5
4th(13)0.877%4.3
All (328)42%4.5

Ball State, all games.